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List Inputs into Risk Assessment

A modern risk assessment will include dozens if not hundreds of inputs. This is necessary to ensure that even the normally-rare phenomena are included. Many inputs will be insignificant risk contributors (or limiters) but should nonetheless be included. This at least documents thoroughness and completeness but also ensures that aspects of risk are not prematurely dismissed.

See more discussion under Data Integration, Evidence, Measurements vs Estimates, Intelligent Simplification, List of Exposures, and others.

Sensitivity analyses are challenging for risk assessments. Inputs appearing more often in algorithms and/or higher in a flowchart hierarchy will generally have a bigger impact on risk estimates. However, normally insignificant inputs can sometimes be the largest contributors to the dominant risk at a location. Consider for example landslide potential in the US. The vast majority of US pipelines have an insignificant potential for failure by landslide but, in some location-specific scenarios, landslide-induced failure will be the dominant failure mechanism. This is also why the use of weightings is strongly discouraged. Furthermore, even if a pipeline system being assessed is free from such potential, a to-be-acquired asset may have that vulnerability and the risk assessment should catch that.

This list includes probability-of-failure variables covering exposure, mitigation, and resistance, and many aspects of consequence potential, including harm to receptors and commercial damages. Included are commonly mandated (by US regulators) risk assessment inputs and some that will be extremely rare phenomena for most pipelines. Note again the caution against removing inputs prematurely–better to include and ‘zero them out’ rather than remove from the assessment.

Following is a sample list of inputs into a risk assessment with brief definitions included.

pipe_diamnominal pipe diameter, in; assignment based on largest reported diameter in data
pipe_wall_nomnominal pipe wall thickness, in; assignment based on smallest reported in data
NOPnormal operating pressure
MAOPmax pressure
pipe_SMYSspecified minimum yield strength, psi
pipe_date1pipe date of manufacture
pipe_date2pipe date of installation
pipe_wall_reinforcepipe sleeves; wraps; etc
casingbinary:  is pipe cased
productproduct transported
aerialconvert burial/aboveground status into binary EAC factor
impct offshoreoffshore sinking objects that might strike pipe
impct_buildingsbuildings and structures falling on pipe ROW
impct_treestrees falling on ROW
impct_utility polesutility poles falling on pipe ROW
impct_otherother falling-type impacts to pipe ROW
vehicles_airexposure:  hit rate from aircraft,events/mi-yr
vehicles_autoexposure:  hit rate from ground vehicles, events/mi-yr
vehicles_railexposure:  hit rate from rail traffic, events/mi-yr
vehicles_marineexposure:  hit rate from watercraft, events/mi-yr
Detonationsexposure:  hit rate from nearby ground shocks/vibrations such as from seismic investigations, events/mi-yr
barriers_natmitigation: natural barriers that prevent impact on pipe
barriers_manmademitigation: man-made barriers that prevent impact on pipe
mech_protprotection from external impacts (pavement, etc)
depth2depth cover from CIS
activity_landuseexposure:  event rate from activities linked to landuse (agriculture, construction, etc)
activity_excavexposure: event rate from excavation activities
activity_agriexposure: event rate from agricultural activities
pub_edbenefit of public education in reducing exposure from thd pty
one_calleffectivness of one-call in reducing excavation exposures
patrol_methodeffectiveness of patrol in reducing external force exposures
patrol_freqbenefit of patrol frequency
signs_markerseffectiveness of signs/markers in reducing ROW exposures
warning_tape_mesheffectiveness of subsurface markers in reducing exposures
ROWbenefit of ROW condition in reducing exposure from thd pty
Max_wall_factorsee context
Crit_wall_thicknessrelated to thickness beyond which puncture becomes nearly impossible
source pressmax pressure connected to pipe (regardless of regulating or safety devices)
MOP potentialfrequency/magnitude of events that cause MOP exceedance
surge_probprobability of surge event
surge_maxmaximum pressure generated by surge event
trainingeffectiveness of training programs in reducing human error events
proceduresbenefit of procedures in reducing exposure to inc ops
safety syseffectiveness of safety devices/systems considering fail modes covered, redundancies, etc
mech error preventersuse of human-error preventors
SCADAexposure reduction through formality of communications and monitoring
PHAprocess hazard analysis, a type of risk assessment that potentially reduces human error potential
substance abuseeffectiveness of sub abuse programs in reducing human error events
sab historyexposure variable, threat of sabotage; history of attacks or threats
sab external threatexposure variable, threat of sabotage; threat from outside company
sab internal threatexposure variable, threat of sabotage; threat from inside company
sab opportunisticexposure variable, threat of sabotage; chance of random, opportunistic event
sab accessmitigation variable, threat of sabotage; ease of access
sab fencemitigation variable, threat of sabotage; ability of fence to deter attacks
sab visibilitymitigation variable, threat of sabotage; ability of visibility to deter attacks
sab lightingmitigation variable, threat of sabotage; ability of lighting collection to deter attacks
sab patrolmitigation variable, threat of sabotage; ability of patorl and monitoring to deter attacks
sab communitymitigation variable, threat of sabotage; ability of community partnering to deter attacks
sab intelligencemitigation variable, threat of sabotage; ability of intelligence collection to deter attacks
geo scourexposure: event rate from scour, hits/mi-yr
geo flood1exposure: event rate from flood, data source#1, hits/mi-yr
geo flood2exposure: event rate from flood, data source#2, hits/mi-yr
geo flood3exposure: event rate from flood, data source#3, hits/mi-yr
geo erosionexposure: event rate from erosion, hits/mi-yr
geo wave_currentexposure: event rate from wave, current action, hits/mi-yr
geo hydraulic mitmitigation:  consider cover, anti-buoyancy, anchors, anti-scour, etc
geo settlementexposure: event rate from settlement, hits/mi-yr
geo aseismic faultingexposure: event rate from aseismic faulting, hits/mi-yr
geo landslideexposure event rate from landslides
geo fireexposure event rate from fires
geo faultingexposure: event rate from faulting, hits/mi-yr
geotech mitmitigation:  consider cover, anchors, monitoring, etc
wthr freeze expfrequency of freeze-related load exposure with no mitigation applied
wthr freeze mitmitigation:  sum effect of all reductions to freeze exposure
wthr snow expfrequency of snow load exposure with no mitigation applied
wthr snow mitmitigation:  sum effect of all snow load exposure reductions
wthr lightningfrequency of potentially damaging lightning strikes
wthr ice_hailfrequency of ice/hail load exposure with no mitigation applied
wthr windstormfrequency of wind load exposure with no mitigation applied
wthr frost heavefrequency of potentially damaging soil mvmnts due to frost action; mitigation included
wthr other mitbenefits from other types of mitigation against weather related exposures
elec_isolamount of electrical isolation of pipe from soil, if casing, assume both atm and galv corr are occuring
atm_corr_generalgeneral atmospheric corrosivity
atm_corr_specialatmospheric corrosivity under special conditions (under insulation, tree sap, splash zone, etc)
buried_environ_soil_corrosivitysoil corrosivity: base value; perhaps from resistivity measurements
buried_environ_soil_corr_moistsoil corrosivity: contribution from moisture content
buried_environ_soil_corr_MICsoil corrosivity: contribution from bacterial activity
buried_environ_soil_corrosivity_pHfrom surrgo
AC Induced Probprobability of AC induced corrosion
AC_potentialmpy of AC induced corrosion
AC_mitreduction in AC induced corrosion derived from installed mitigation
CP_ineff_meas1ILI-measured freq of gaps in coverage; 999=no ILI
CP_ineff_meas_confid1include age of meas
CP_ineff_meas2CP gap freq measured by CIS
CP_ineff_meas3CP gap freq measured by CIS–no anomaly found
CP_ineff_estassumed CP gap rate; prob of one or more gaps in CP coverage per unit length, based on experience with all avail info
CP_effectiveness_rectifier_oosreduction in CP effectiveness due to rectifier out of service periods
CP_effectiveness_P-S_criteriaeffectiveness of CP:  robustness of acceptability criteria for pipe-soil voltage readings
CP_effectiveness_P-S_disteffectiveness of CP:  distance from last pipe-soil voltage reading
CP_effectiveness_P-S_readingeffectiveness of CP:  acceptability of last pipe-soil voltage reading
CP_effectiveness_P-S_dateeffectiveness of CP:  date of last pipe-soil voltage reading
CP interference DC source% red in CP eff based on minutes per yr interruptions in CP per ft2 of steel and cast iron within buffer of track(s)
CP_interference_DC_mitbenefits from mitigation of DC source interference
coating_ext_cond_fail_disbondpropensity of ext coating to become disbonded and shield CP
coat_def_new_estrate of emergence of new coating defects, per mile-year
coat_def_ext_estestimated holiday rate for coated steel or cast iron pipe
coat_def_ext_est_confidconfid in coat holiday rate
coat_def_ext_measILI measured holiday rate for coated steel or cast iron pipe
coating_ext_insp_datedate of inspection of external coating
coat_def_ext_meas2measured holiday rate for coated steel or cast iron pipe
coat_def_ext_meas_confid2confid in coat holiday rate
coating_ext_insp_date2date of inspection of external coating
coat_def_ext_meas3measured holiday rate for coated steel or cast iron pipe
coating_ext_insp_date3date of inspection of external coating
corr ext mpy measmeasured at ILI anomaly
corr ext mpy meas confidconfidence in measured corr rate value and applicability to segment of interest
corr ext mpy meas2measured at ILI non-anomaly
corr ext mpy meas confid2initial confid then % loss of confid per year since ILI date
corr ext mpy meas3rate measured in DA
corr ext mpy meas confid3external corrosion rate as measured (by coupon, probe, successive NDE, etc)
prod corr generalsummation of product stream factors that add to corrosivity;  each is modeled to independently add to the potential damage rate
int corr crit anglempy int corr due to exceedance of critical angle (liq/solid holdup)
int corr velocitympy int corr due to liquid/solid depositions and lack of sweep
int corr flow regimempy int corr due to liquid/solid depositions and lack of sweep
Prob of Accumulation Point_ILItriggered by ILI anomaly
corrosivity_product_ILItriggered by ILI anomaly
int corr contam episodesmpy due to excursions in int corr prevention systems
int corr prob upsetprob of int corr contaminant excursion
erosionmpy of wall loss from fluid/solid impingement, mechanical wear
internal_corr_mitigation_chem_inhibchem treatment to reduce product corrosivity
internal_corr_mitigation_coatinternal coating
internal_corr_mitigation_filteringfiltering of corrosive components
internal_corr_mitigation_piggingmaint pigging to sweep accumulations
corr int mpy measinternal corrosion rate as measured (by coupon, probe, successive NDE, etc)
corr int mpy meas confidconfidence in measured corr rate value and applicability to segment of interest
corr int mpy meas2internal corrosion rate as measured (by coupon, probe, successive NDE, etc)
corr int mpy meas confid2confidence in measured corr rate value and applicability to segment of interest
corr int mpy meas3rate measured in DA
corr int mpy meas confid3initial confid then % loss of confid per year since assess date
cycles int presscount of cycles from int pressure fluctuations
pct_SMYS_int_pressmagnitude of cycles from internal pressure fluctuations
fatigue_resisreduction in potential crack growth due to thicker wall pipe and possible presence of stress contributors
crack_growth_base_intmpy base rate of cracking due to internal pressure cycle
cycles externalcount of cycles from external loadings
pct_SMYS_extmagnitude of cycles from external loadings
crack_growth_base_extmils/cycle; increase in crack growth rate due to ILI w no anomaly
cycles oscillationscount of cycles from pipe movements
pct_SMYS_oscillmagnitude of cycles from pipe movements
EAC_Histmpy implied by history of EAC
EAC_basempy EAC base rate
EAC_colonympy added by crack colony density
EAC_coalmpy added by crack coalenscence potential
crack mpy meascrack rate as measured (by successive NDE, etc)
crack mpy meas confidconfidence in measured crack rate value and applicability to segment of interest
crack mpy meas2crack rate as measured (by successive NDE, etc)
crack mpy meas confid2confidence in measured crack rate value and applicability to segment of interest
pipe_SMYS_MLactual or conservative est (highest plausible SMYS leads to thinner wall est)
surviving_defect_fctradjustment to Barlow-inferred wall thickness to allow for surviving defects at this pressure; % red in pipe eff wall; eg, 0.9 = 10% reduction in theoretical wall thickness due to potential surviving defects
test_presspressure test pressure level
test_datepressure test date
pipe_wall_meas_ILI_depthdepth of metal loss expressed as % of pipe wall, measured by ILI
pipe_wall_meas_ILIwall thickness measured by ILI
pipe_ERFeffective repair ratio (or RPR or other); pipe rupture pressure ratio; usually from ILI
integ_insp_date_ILI_mldate of ML ILI
pipe wall meas accuracy metal loss ILImetal loss detection accuracy associated with ILI
pipe_wall_meas_metal_loss_NDEpipe wall remaining after metal loss as measured by NDE
pipe wall meas accuracy metal loss NDEmetal loss detection accuracy associated with NDE
integ_insp_date_NDEdate of inspection: NDE (physical contact on pipe)
pipe wall meas crack ILIpipe wall remaining after cracking, as measured by ILI
pipe wall meas accuracy cracking ILIcrack detection accuracy associated with ILI
integ_insp_date_ILI_crkdate of crack ILI
pipe wall meas crack NDEpipe wall remaining after cracking, as measured by NDE
pipe wall meas accuracy crack NDEcrack detection accuracy associated with NDE
pipe_flaw_repair_histpossible pipe weakness; substandard repair practices
pipe_flaw_crkpossible pipe weakness; manufacture flaw in pipe seam
pipe_manufactpossible pipe weakness; substandard manufacturing process
pipe_toughnesspossible pipe lack of toughness as part of ‘effective’ pipe wall calculation; assumption is that toughness property is less certain for pipe manufactured prior to 1975
pipe_appurtpossible pipe weakness; substandard appurtenance
pipe_constructpossible pipe weakness from construction methods
pipe_bucklepossible pipe weakness; buckle
pipe_jointpossible pipe weakness; substandard joint type
pipe_spanpossible pipe weakness due to stress from span
pipe_wrinkle_bendpossible pipe weakness; wrinkle bends present
pipe_ext_loadpossible pipe weakness; excessive external loading
pipe_flaws_anomfrom ILI
pipe_wk_emerge_ratemay require pairing specific weakness types with insp/test types
pipe_flaw_body-newemergence rate of new weaknesses of this type
pipe_flaw_seam-newemergence rate of new weaknesses of this type
pipe_flaw_repair_hist-newemergence rate of new weaknesses of this type
pipe_appurt-newemergence rate of new weaknesses of this type
pipe_construct-newemergence rate of new weaknesses of this type
pipe_buckle-newemergence rate of new weaknesses of this type
pipe_girthweld-newemergence rate of new weaknesses of this type
pipe_span-newemergence rate of new weaknesses of this type
contam areahazard zone (radius) caused by contamination by released product
HCA_ESA_unitsnumber of ‘units’ of this receptor
HCA_OPA_unitsnumber of ‘units’ of this receptor
HCA_HPA_unitsnumber of ‘units’ of this receptor
HCA_DW_unitsnumber of ‘units’ of this receptor
HCA_NW_unitsnumber of ‘units’ of this receptor
HCA_ESA_damage_rateHCA-type-weighted average damage rate per HCA unit
HCA_OPA_damage_rateHCA-type-weighted average damage rate per HCA unit
HCA_HPA_damage_rateHCA-type-weighted average damage rate per HCA unit
HCA_DW_damage_rateHCA-type-weighted average damage rate per HCA unit
HCA_NW_damage_rateHCA-type-weighted average damage rate per HCA unit
pop_class_unitsCFR49 Part 192 population class categories
pop damage ratefraction of units damaged or extent of damage per unit
Prop valunit value of this receptor
Prop damage ratefraction of units damaged or extent of damage per unit
Environ unitsnumber of ‘units’ of this receptor
Environ valunit value of this receptor
Environ damage ratefraction of units damaged or extent of damage per unit
pop_roadspopulation density on roadway
pop_censuspopulation density per US census
product valvalue per unit volume of product transported
vol deinventoryvolume that would drain to release point
vol shutinvolume that would move to leak site prior to system shut in
repair coststotal repair costs incl return-to-svc costs (inspection, etc)
service interruption costscontract penalties, etc
outage cost/periodvalue of lost transport revenue
outage periodtime period of transport service interruption due to incident
production interrupt periodtime period of production interruption due to incident
production interruption cost/periodvalue of lost production due to outage
CoF indirectdamage to corp reputation; increased regulatory oversight; legal costs; etc
Published inBeginners CornerData ManagementRisk Assessment